Berthon Forecast 2026

Another grey and wintery day in Northern Europe, wrapped up warm in the Garden Shed, and yet another Berthon Forecast, this time for 2026.

All around is the decay of winter, as well as the damage from the recent storms that have swept through Europe. Of course, the political and macro-economic weather is no less grim. As I write, the USA’s Fifth Fleet has arrived in Middle Eastern waters and a full-blown conflict is underway, and the ever-present blot on the European landscape that is the war in Ukraine continues to steal away life and limb. Gaza is quiet apart from the odd foray from one side or the other with the inevitable and tragic loss of life that this brings. All this and the Epstein files are out and wreaking havoc amongst the great and rather less than good, across our planet.

The West continues to grapple with the changing world order, and of course here in the UK, local elections are pending. The Garden Shed seems very inviting!

Despite all this, our cosy world of yachting continues to turn, yachts are trading, and people are cruising far. Local sailing and steaming continue to provide a welcome release from the problems and challenges all around, and the shipyards and brokerage market for the superyacht and megayacht are super busy with orders and deliveries.

Around 84% of the yachts built worldwide have no mast. Outboards and IPS are increasingly popular and the motorboat market continues to turn. Sailing yachts still trade but that percentage difference is certainly felt throughout our market in all our territories.

A bruising year in 2025 for new yacht sales in the small and mid-range segments both sail and power look likely to be followed by another in 2026. Stocking levels remain too high and those buying want the latest and greatest if they are to pay the price. As ever, many of our clients have a life plan and will pay a fair price for a quality new yacht, built to their specification for their life programme and so whilst numbers are down, yachts are being sold.

The Bluewater Call and The Tech Revolution

Bluewater cruising continues to be a shining light in yachting’s firmament as people experience all that our amazing planet has to offer to those who can take time out to explore and discover it. As the taxman becomes more needy, many are deciding that there has never been a better time to step out of the rat race and onto the deck of the explorer or bluewater cruising yacht of which they always dreamt.

As with the rest of the planet, AI is changing yachting fast, and in positive ways in terms of navigation, design and systems for preventative maintenance and so much more. The self-driving boat has been with us for some time and is becoming more common, whilst dynamic positioning is the norm. AI delivers operating simplicity to complicated kit that we buy for the purpose of relaxing and being at one with the elements and making life simple.

The Reality of Rising Costs

Over the past 10 years, yachting has become more expensive. A £3 widget for a house is £20 if the moniker marinised is attached to its description. Large corporations are buying up marinas and yards on both sides of the Atlantic, tidying up the assets and then ramping the prices. Every detail of a sailors’ shopping list has seen the price rise significantly and sadly, we are seeing people leave the sport as a result. Even in the rarefied air breathed by the super yacht and mega yacht owners, there is resistance on maintenance and running costs. Captains wrestle with spreadsheets and owners want to know that they are getting value – rich they may be, stupid they are not.

The market is hard, and Berthon is positioned to take market share, with an established and highly competent team, as well as the freedom to be nimble and to understand where the market is going and a policy of listening carefully to the only people who really matter – our clients.

Looking Back: Did We Get 2025 Right?

We are always nervous re-reading the Berthon Forecast from the previous year but more by luck than good management, we were on the money for 2025 –

Last year the introduction of tariffs in the USA was a rumble, an idea, a bit of a worry. Today they are in, established and creating shockwaves across the Planet. We predicted that the threat and possible reality would drive American sailors from their home waters and have them enjoying Europe, the Pacific and elsewhere. This has certainly happened to such an extent that next summer Palma de Mallorca has multiple flights direct from American airports to its sunny shores. We are selling new Solaris and Moody to Americans who will keep them in Europe and our bluewater portfolio has seen multiple American buyers who would explore all points of our 7 seas – except their own.

Stocking levels have been a concern for a long time. We surmised that new yacht dealers who were over committed would fall on their swords and out of the market. Of course, there have been casualties, where even the mighty Marine Max is feeling the pressure (and we believe that there are more to come), but what has been much seen has been support for dealers and stock sell offs as production manufacturers release them from impossible commitments.

Ports in the Mediterranean and elsewhere were starting to empty in 2025 as prices increased. We predicted that costs would fall as marina operators realised that they had many metres of empty water and wanted to fill this with hulls and their coffers with revenue. This we have certainly seen, as well as the inelegant scramble by less popular ports to take yachts in and then to start to ramp price almost immediately. This appears to be settling down. Sadly, many local authorities across the planet have jumped on the bandwagon, just as the smart money is reversing and their additional taxes are damaging the yachting business further.

We opined that less glamorous ports would raise their game and this has happened. The age of the rotation captain is now upon us, and so overpriced ports are losing as location becomes less important as a captain clocks off for three months for his replacement to take over, and goes home.

We felt that the multihull market was on the march, and so it is. This is a segment which continues to develop with a baffling amount of new product, new ideas and a huge amount of innovation. Our prediction about ports that were friendlier to these beamy steeds who require less water is not yet realised, but we are sure that it is coming.

In addition, our feelings about the importance of going green and the strides that would be taken in 2025 were certainly realised in both sail and power, and the great technological advances pioneered in super and mega yachting are quickly trickling down. As the large yacht market continues to innovate, the whole industry benefits.

The 2026 Crystal Ball: Our picks for the new year

We predict that the American domestic market will now settle down in the same way as the UK market settled after Brexit. Tariff paid, duty paid American yachts will stay in the American waters. At the moment, there is a lot of pressure on price. We believe that this will lessen as more Americans in the mid-range buy and use their yachts outside home waters and the yachts that will remain in the territory will be perfect for local waters. The Tariff cost will become baked in and this market will settle. Places like Florida will continue to teem with new yachts – but it will be those which are either built in the USA specifically for the home or those which are most suitable for the job. As these yachts age, residual will be relatively strong.

We also predict that maybe not as early as 2026, but certainly in the next five years that the yachting industry will need to grasp the thorny nettle of scrapping yachts. We do it with ships, cars and all manner of other things and as we continue to build yachts, so must we dispose of the very mature, very worn and uneconomic to maintain and use. The large volume of unused and unloved old yachts that are uneconomic to repair is the dirty secret of our industry.

AI will take another leap forward in yachting in 2026, making yachts easier to maintain and to operate. It will assist with design innovation and with all manner of details around our sport. What we also predict is that publications such as this from Berthon, and all marketing material and specifications will continue to be written by human beings passionate about yachting, and not by Berthon Bots.

Our second important prediction around AI is that it will change the way that our clients search for yachts. Not immediately but over the next 10 years, as it delivers personal searches of great sophistication that will render the online portals on which we all rely redundant. They may keep up using AI for now, but general searches for many can never be as good as a search performed by your personal bot whose specialist subject is you.

PREDICTION

We fear that we are in for another year of challenges for new yacht builders across the board and that brokerage sales will be solid but not spectacular. As new yacht dealers clearly can’t afford to stock more and are released from unrealistic stocking commitments, we predict that a number of the larger builders will be keen to sell direct, doing away with the margin taken by the dealer, who now have limited value as they cannot take more stock and the builder has the heft to manage the sales function.

In 2026, delivering value for money in yachting will become more important than before. Overpriced services will not get an easy ride. In an environment where clients are prepared to leave the market or to move to different more cost-effective suppliers in order to get the job done, service businesses will have to sharpen their pencils. The emphasis will be on repair and safety and not on the nice to haves.

The Berthon Fleet: New Horizons and New Leadership

The Berthon Sales Group is expecting a big year in 2026. The last six months have seen significant positioning to ensure that we increase service levels and deliver more to the client base. These include our appointment as the Solaris Sail dealers with Luxury Marine in the Balearics which will see us showing a Solaris 50 and Solaris 64 at the Palma Boat Show this year. Our Sales office in Palma will be at the Palma Superyacht Show as ever and this business continues to develop quickly. Our offices in the UK are expanding on motor yacht sales and our wonderful office in the USA is busy with yacht arbitrage for American yachties both new and brokerage. Sweden is expanding fast and our Service business in Palma has increased service levels and is there for you whether in Palma or on the Spanish mainland where our footprint is growing.

After a pretty comprehensive nautical makeover our little Berthon ship has finished trials. The crew are ready for the 2026 voyage and all the possibilities that it offers. As ever we recognise that the voyage to excellence is never ending, but smaller craft are more nimble and able to react positively to changing weather patterns and market movement too. Our crew are ready to make sail with a new Captain, as Tim Carbury takes my place at the helm. Passage planning is never an exact science, but we are ready.

We look forward to working with you in 2026 and to helping you to dive into all the compelling possibilities that our wonderful sport has to offer. You can be sure that our passion for yachts, knowledge of the market and the sales process will make the entry and exit into yacht ownership more warm bath than nightmare.

With fair winds from us all.

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